Just for curiosity’s sake, I took a moment tonight to compile a list of the hottest House candidates on Actblue.com, as ranked by their total fundraising totals for the 2008 cycle so far.* It should also give us a few clues as to which candidates we should be keeping an eye on as second quarter fundraising reports are filed with the FEC in the next few weeks.
| State | CD | Candidate | Raised on Actblue |
|---|---|---|---|
| CO | 2 | Jared Polis | $100,621 |
| MA | 5 | Niki Tsongas | $92,787 |
| MA | 5 | Jamie Eldridge | $84,358 |
| ME | 1 | Chellie Pingree | $73,390 |
| CA | 26 | Russ Warner | $55,512 |
| IL | 10 | Dan Seals | $48,083 |
| AZ | 3 | Bob Lord | $45,275 |
| TX | 10 | Dan Grant | $44,010 |
| NY | 29 | Eric Massa | $42,931 |
| NY | 26 | Jon Powers | $37,825 |
| CA | 4 | Charlie Brown | $34,516 |
| FL | 8 | Mike Smith | $32,645 |
| MO | 6 | Kay Barnes | $27,675 |
| CT | 4 | Jim Himes | $25,278 |
| NM | 1 | Martin Heinrich | $23,044 |
| NC | 8 | Larry Kissell | $22,686 |
| MD | 4 | Donna Edwards | $19,217 |
| MT | AL | Bill Kennedy | $12,541 |
| NM | 2 | Bill McCamley | $11,580 |
| OH | 1 | Steve Driehaus | $9,065 |
*As of 9:52 PM EDT June 27, 2007
Definitely some interesting names in that list, including Russ Warner, who appeared to be capable of giving Republican incumbent David Dreier a respectable challenge in 2006. Warner apparently made the mistake of not spending enough on the primary, and lost the nomination to the district’s 2004 nominee, the unknown, underfunded Cynthia Matthews. Predictably, Dreier went on to win his 2006 contest by a comfortable 57-38 margin, even though his district has a PVI of R+4. Hopefully Warner has learned a thing or two about what it takes to win a primary and we can see how he hustles against Dreier in a general election. Judging by his campaign website, Warner has picked up a strongly anti-war flavor.
It’s interesting to note that, outside the top four candidates (who are all vying for safe Democratic open seats), some of the top names on Actblue are contesting tough districts like Bob Lord‘s campaign against Rep. John Shadegg in Arizona’s 3rd (R+5.9), and Dan Grant against Mike McCaul in Texas’ 10th (R+13). It will be interesting to see how many aggressive challenges can be raised in Republican-leaning districts like these over the next year and a half. My guess is that we’ll see quite a few. There’s nothing quite like a massive wave election to inspire recruitment.
On a more technical side, it will also be of high interest to see how great a proportion these Actblue-generated receipts will have in these candidates’ overall 2Q filings.
I recognize that Cynthia Matthews made no friends out of state when she won that primary, and no friends in or out of state when her subsequent performance proved just as flabby as in the previous cycle, but it was still an interesting rebuke to the powers that be in the party.
The front-runner in NM-01, Martin Heinrich, will be interesting to watch. He may be the Scott Kleeb of the 2008 cycle:
http://www.martinhei…
How can you tell what has been raised for 2008? I only see total amounts raised. Does that exclude 2006 amounts?
Wow, Jon Powers (NY-26) is not just hot, he’s scorching. You know he’s only been fundraising a month? His ActBlue page is blowing up.